September 8th, 2010
Corn
- Condition: 69% good to excellent vs. 70% a week ago and 69% a year ago; expecting 1% decline
- Doughing: 98% vs. 94% a week ago and vs. 93% 5 yr average
- Dented: 86% vs. 73% a week ago and vs. 71% 5 yr average
- Mature: 33% vs. 17% a week ago and 19% 5 yr average
- Harvest: 6% vs. 2% a year ago and 4% 5 yr average
Soybeans
- Condition: 64% good to excellent vs. 64% a week ago and 68% a year ago; expecting 1% decline
Posted in Grain & Oilseeds
September 1st, 2010
Crude expecting a build of 1.2 mil; Actual build of 3.43 mil
Gas expecting a draw of 225K; Actual draw of 212K
Distillates expecting a build of 1.15 mil; Actual draw of 739K
Posted in Energy
August 30th, 2010
Corn
- Condition: 70% good to excellent unchanged from last week; expecting 1-2% lower vs. 69% a year ago
- Doughing: 94% vs. 88% a week ago and vs. 86% 5 yr average
- Dented: 73% vs. 54% a week ago and vs. 55% 5 yr average
- Mature: 17% vs. 8% a week ago and 11% 5 yr average
Soybeans
- Condition: 64% good to excellent unchanged from last week; expecting down 1-2% and vs. 69% a year ago
Posted in Grain & Oilseeds
August 25th, 2010
Crude expecting a build of 300K, Actual build of 4 mil
Gas expecting a draw of 450K, Actual build of 2.27 mil
Distillates expecting a build of 1 mil, Actual build of 1.76 mil
Posted in Energy
August 23rd, 2010
Corn
- Condition: 70% good to excellent vs. 69% last week and 70% last year; expecting a 1-2% decline from last week
- Doughing: 88% vs. 74% last week and 74% 5 yr average
- Dented: 54% vs. 32% last week and 37% 5 yr average
- Mature: 8% vs. 3% a year ago and 6 % 5 yr average
Soybeans
- Condition: 64% good to excellent vs.66% last week and 69% last year; expecting a 1% decline from last week
Posted in Grain & Oilseeds
August 18th, 2010
Crude expecting a draw of 1 million, Actual draw 818K
Gas expecting a draw of 375K, Actual draw 39K
Distillates expecting a build of 1.5 million, Actual build 1.07 million
Posted in Energy
August 16th, 2010
Corn
- Conditions: 69% good to excellent vs. 71% a week ago and 68% a year ago; expecting 1-2% decline from last week
- Doughing: 74% vs. 52% a week ago and 58% 5 yr average
- Dented: 32% vs. 14% a week ago and 22% 5 yr average
Soybeans
- Conditions: 66% good to excellent unchanged from last week and last year; expecting a 1-2% decline from last week
- Blooming: 97% vs. 93% a week ago and 95% 5 yr average
Posted in Grain & Oilseeds
August 12th, 2010
August ‘10 USDA World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates
- ‘09/’10 Corn – Slightly Bullish
- Feed and residual as well as export use was increased by 25 million bushels each.
- Ethanol usage was revised 50 million bushels lower leaving ending stocks down 125 million bushels from last month’s estimate.
- Ending stocks were 52 million bushels lower at 1.43 billion bushels and below private estimates.
- ‘10/’11 Corn – Neutral
- Yield was increased to 165 bushels/acre based on the first USDA field surveys expanding total production by 120 million bushels.
- Exports were increased 100 million bushels reflected changing world needs with the Black Seas drought.
- Ending stocks are projected at about 1.31 billion bushels or a historically very tight 35.5 days of use. This was in line with trade estimates.
- ‘09/’10 Soybeans – Neutral
- The crush and export estimates were increased 5 and 10 million bushels respectively leaving ending stocks at 160 million bushels or a very tight 17.4 days of use.
- This was in line with trade estimates.
- ‘10/’11 Soybeans - Neutral
- Yield was increased to 44 bushels/acre based on the first USDA field surveys expanding total production by 88 million bushels.
- Exports were increased by 65 million bushels leaving ending stocks unchanged at a comfortable 360 million bushels or 40.5 days of use
- This was slightly above trade estimates.
- Other Markets – Bullish
- World wheat production for the ‘10/’11 market year was revised down 15.9 million tons (585 million bushels) due to drought conditions in the Black Sea region. This pushed projected world ending stocks down 12.3 million tons to 174.8 million total which is still 49.9 million tons higher than the ‘07/’08 lows. The market was surprised by the severity of the production cut.
- World coarse grain production was estimated down 10.6 million tons (417 million bushels) due to the same reasons as wheat. Ending stocks projections declined 8.1 million tons including a 1.9 million ton reduction in corn to 174 and 139 million tons for coarse grains and corn respectively.
- US meat production was revised lower for 2010 with lower cattle carcass weights and reduced Canadian hog imports. Dairy production was estimated higher with increased livestock numbers and greater efficiency in milk per cow but increased exports offset expanded production.
http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/wasde/wasde-08-12-2010.pdf
Posted in Agriculture, Grain & Oilseeds
August 4th, 2010
Crude expecting a draw of 1.65 million, Actual draw 2.78 million
Gas expecting a draw of 1 million, Actual build 729K
Distillates expecting a build of 1 million, Actual build 2.17 million
Posted in Uncategorized
July 9th, 2010
July ‘10 USDA World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates
- ‘09/’10 Corn - Neutral
- Feed and residual use was increased by 175 million bushels due to the much lower than expected stocks report on June 30th.
- Ethanol usage was revised 50 million bushels lower leaving ending stocks down 125 million bushels from last month’s estimate.
- Ending stocks were slightly above private estimates.
- ‘10/’11 Corn – Neutral
- Acreage was revised lower based on the June survey leaving production 125 million bushels below last month’s estimates.
- Exports were moved 50 million bushels lower to similar levels as ‘09/’10.
- Ending stocks are projected at about 1.37 billion bushels or a historically very tight 37.5 days of use. This was in line with trade estimates.
- ‘09/’10 Soybeans – Neutral
- The crush and export estimates were increased 5 million bushels leaving ending stocks at 175 million bushels or a tight 19.1 days of use.
- This was in line with trade estimates.
- ‘10/’11 Soybeans - Neutral
- Acreage was revised higher by 900,000 acres pushing production estimates up 35 million bushels.
- Exports were increased by 20 million bushels leaving ending stocks unchanged at a comfortable 360 million bushels or 41.4 days of use
- This was in line with trade estimates.
- Other Markets – Neutral
- Domestic wheat yields were forecasted higher at record highs pushing inventories to an extremely burdensome level of 1.09 billion bushels or 181.7 days of domestic use.
- Higher domestic wheat yields were offset by lower production in Canada and Russia.
- US meat and dairy production was estimated higher with increased livestock numbers and greater efficiency in milk per cow and carcass weights. This was partially offset by stronger export demand in most areas.
http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/wasde/wasde-07-09-2010.pdf
Posted in Agriculture, Grain & Oilseeds
